In brief

The Progressive National Party (PNP) government will focus on addressing a rising crime rate, given the threat that it poses to the continued recovery of the tourism sector and to the party's political fortunes. Tourism has recovered more quickly in the Turks and Caicos Islands than elsewhere, given strong air connectivity and price competitiveness. We expect this recovery to continue to drive real GDP growth, despite cost-of-living challenges in source markets. We estimate that the fiscal surplus shrank in 2023, although it should grow again in 2024; this will allow the government to expand its cash reserve fund, which allows for deficit spending in times of crisis without the need to take on new debt.