In brief

The president, Daniel Ortega, and his family are set to remain in power throughout the 2024-28 forecast period. The Ortegas' increasingly authoritarian manoeuvres are isolating Nicaragua on the international stage, but this will not persuade them to change political course. Economic growth will remain precarious in 2024-25 as demand for exports weakens amid a deteriorating global outlook. Cultivating an economic relationship with China has become increasingly important to the Ortega regime. The signing of a free-trade agreement in mid-2023 was a crucial step in this regard, and the Chinese government has now elevated Nicaragua to the rank of strategic partner, making us more confident that Chinese investments, particularly in infrastructure, will arrive within our forecast period.