Value of MELD 3.0， MELD， and MELD-Na scores in assessing the short-term prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure： A comparative study

Objective To investigate the value of MELD 3.0， MELD， and MELD-Na scores in assessing the 90-day prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure （ACLF） through a comparative study. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 605 patients with ACLF who were treated in Tianjin Third Central Hospital， The Fifth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital， and Beijing YouAn Hospital from November 2012 to June 2019， and according to the 90-day follow-up results after admission， they were divided into survival group with 392 patients and death group with 213 patients. The receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve， the area under the ROC curve （AUC）， net reclassification improvement （NRI）， integrated discrimination improvement （IDI）， and decision curve analysis （DCA） curve were used to investigate the value of MELD 3.0， MELD， and MELD-Na scores at baseline， day 3， week 1， and week 2 in predicting the prognosis of the disease. Results At day 3 and week 1， MELD 3.0 score had an AUC of 0.775 and 0.808， respectively， with a better AUC than MELD score （P0， indicating a positive improvement （all P