PROJECTED SUGARCANE YIELD IN DIFFERENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN INDIAN STATES: A STATE-WISE PANEL DATA EXPLORATION

This study investigatesthe impact of climatic factors on sugarcane yield in 19 Indian states. Cobb-Douglas production function model was used to estimate the regression coefficients of explanatory variables with sugarcane yield using state-wise panel data during 1970-2017. Thereupon, it estimates the marginal change in sugarcane yield as 1 unit increase in climatic factors using marginal impact analysis technique. It was also projected sugarcane yield across Indian states for different years (i.e. 2040s, 2060s, 2080s and 2100s). Empirical results shows that area sown and value of production per hectare land have a positive implication on sugarcane yield. Climatic factors such as annual average maximum temperature, annual actual rainfall and precipitation show a negative impact on sugarcane yield. Sugarcane yield, therefore, decreases as increase in annual average maximum temperature, and annual actual rainfall and precipitation. Results based on marginal impact analysis technique imply that sugarcane yield is expected to be declined by 1.51% due to one-unit change in climatic factors in India. Estimates demonstrate that marginal impact of climatic factors on sugarcane yield was significantly varied across Indian states due to extreme diversity in climatic factors, geographical location, irrigation facilities, natural resources, farm management practices, use of advance technologies and fertilizer in sugarcane farming, agricultural development policies and agricultural R&D. Results imply that sugarcane yield is likely to be declined by 3.84%, 4.69%, 5.55% and 6.62% in different climate change scenarios in India. Thus, it would create extensive problems for sugarcane farmers, agricultural labours, sugar industries, consumers and government in India.