European business cycle indicators : 3rd quarter 2013
In: 2013; (2013)
Online
Elektronische Ressource
Zugriff:
The length of the crisis that started in 2007/08 has brought the role of uncertainty in macroeconomic fluctuations to the fore. While economic theory suggests that increases in uncertainty have a negative impact on economic activity by depressing hiring, investment and consumption, measuring uncertainty is intrinsically difficult. The highlight section looks into a relatively new approach to measuring uncertainty based on survey data. The approach is based on the idea that respondents' survey replies will be more or less concordant, depending on the degree of (un-)certainty about the future course of the economy. Looking into the evolution of an uncertainty index that measures the degree of dispersion of replies in the different sectors of the economy, the section concludes that survey data can be useful to gauge economic uncertainty. However, the empirical functioning of the presented measure applied to real survey data also points to some non-trivial caveats that call for caution in the interpretation of the measure and require more work to fully understand the at times opposing mechanics driving the results
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European business cycle indicators : 3rd quarter 2013
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Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | Commission, European ; Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs |
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Quelle: | 2013; (2013) |
Veröffentlichung: | 2013 |
Medientyp: | Elektronische Ressource |
ISSN: | 1831-5704 (print) |
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